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moneysense.ca, 19/03/10
Expect cheaper gas thanks to loonie and oil’s rise
You may think gas prices should go up when oil, and the dollar, increase, but that’s not necessarily the case.
With the Canadian dollar rising toward parity in recent days and oil trudging higher over the last few months, the days of pricey gas might seem to be once again close at hand.
But when the loonie rises, it tends to soften the effect higher oil prices have on what Canadians pay for products made from crude such as gasoline, the vice-president of the Canadian Petroleum Products Institute said Friday.
When oil and the loonie rise in tandem “then you’re going to have a dampening impact of the cost of crude oil on the cost inputs of refined products for Canadians,” Tony Macerollo said.
“If the dollar stopped moving, but oil didn’t, you wouldn’t see that effect.”
A high loonie is bad news for Canadian energy producers that sell their product in the United States, said Judith Dwarkin, chief economist at Ross Smith Energy Group.
“When the Canadian dollar is rising, the seller receives fewer Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar,” she said.
“If you’re an exporter relying on sales into the U.S. market, a rise in Canadian dollar is not helpful.”
However, companies get a bigger bang for their Canadian buck if they’re bringing in equipment or services from the United States.
“But I think that’s a relatively small piece of the puzzle,” Dwarkin said.
“There’s some offset if you’re buying cross-border services or goods. But it’s only a very small sweetener of the situation.”
The loonie was worth about 98.5 cents US on Friday, off 0.15 of a cent from a day earlier.
Oil prices were close to US$80 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. A report by Ottawa-based think-tank Conference Board of Canada predicted Thursday crude prices will remain in that range this year.
Related articles:
Should we shop in the States if the loonie reaches parity?
Advice on buying property in the U.S.
moneysense.ca, 19/03/10











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