Heard enough about the looming threat of a double dip recession? So has Elliot H. Gue over at Investingdaily.com. In fact, he thinks it’s downright unlikely that the recession will rear its head again, poor economic indicators aside.
In a nutshell, he argues that:
A) The precipitous drop in U.S. consumer confidence from May to June isn’t as bad as it looks, since consumer confidence is “a volatile data series” at the best of times.
B) The PMI index for manufacturing has dropped but isn’t tanking, and still indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector. (Historically, the PMI and GDP have been closely related.)
C) Fears about the European debt crisis have been easing, and the latest numbers are surprisingly good.
Having said all that, Gue isn’t exactly a harbinger of good cheer — he figures we’re in for a “slow, grinding recovery.”