America’s best stocks 2016

In the past 7 years, our U.S. All-Star stocks’ gains have averaged 18.5% annually, far in advance of the 10.3% posted by the benchmark S&P500

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by

From the December 2015 issue of the magazine.

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The first gust of arctic air inspires many Canadians to dream of tropical vacations. Perhaps a nice cruise to the Caribbean or a sail along the coast of Italy. The possibilities are nearly endless—at least until rude practicalities enter into the picture. Similarly, investors face a daunting number of choices when searching for good stocks. Head south to Wall Street and you’ll soon discover thousands and thousands on offer. It can all be a little overwhelming and not nearly as much fun as planning a vacation.

Never fear, we’re here to help with the 11th annual MoneySense All-Star guide to the Top 500 U.S. stocks. In it we compile a veritable sea of facts and figures on each of the largest stocks in the U.S. and then boil everything down into an easy-to-use letter grade. Stocks with the most growth potential combined with value appeal make it onto our All-Star team.

We’re very pleased to be able to say that the U.S. All-Stars have outperformed over the last decade—despite getting off to a rocky start. Indeed, they bested the market over the last one, three, five, seven and 10 years, with particularly strong relative gains more recently.

SUBSCRIBERS ONLYView The Top 500 U.S. Stocks, All-Stars & more for FREE online »

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Download the 2016 Top Stocks Premium Package with all the raw data for $14.95 »

If you had purchased an equal dollar amount of the All-Stars in the first year and rolled your portfolio into the new list of All-Stars each year thereafter, you’d have gained an average of 5.5% per year over the last decade. By way of comparison, the market (as represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF) gained 5.2% per year.

The U.S. All-Stars had trouble getting their sea legs in the first few years, thanks in part to the 2008 stock market crash­. But they’ve been steaming ahead ever since, shooting up by an average of 18.5% annually over the last seven years compared to the market’s gain of only 10.3% per year. This upswing was even more impressive over the last five years: The All-Stars jumped by an average of 17.2% per year and beat the market, which grew at a rate of 11% per year. And what about the last three years? The All-Stars gained 20.4% annually while the market climbed 12.1%.

You’ll be happy to know that this positive trend also continued last year, with the All-Stars advancing 16.6% and outpacing the market’s return of 4.7% by 11.9 percentage points. (Please note that all the return figures mentioned above do not include dividends and are presented in U.S. dollar terms.)

Our experience illustrates the benefits of sticking with a sound strategy even when it encounters a rough patch. Doing so might have been stressful early on, but we were buoyed by our experience in Canada and determined to stay on course. It turns out that we were right to do so. It also highlights the unfortunate fact that stock investors are bound to suffer down periods from time to time, which is something every investor should remember.

The Grades

The Top 500 focuses on the largest 500 stocks in the U.S. (as measured by revenue) using data from Bloomberg. We start by evaluating each stock for its value potential and then for its growth appeal. Those with the best characteristics are awarded As, solid candidates get Bs or Cs, while stocks in need of improvement swim away with Ds or even Fs. Stocks with good grades are deemed to be worthy of consideration while those at the bottom of the class should be treated with caution.

To get top marks each stock must pass the same series of strict tests that we use for the Canadian Top 200, which are detailed on page 31.

In brief, our growth test favours firms that have increased their sales-per-share and earnings-per-share over the last three years. We also prefer companies with strong returns on equity, healthy market performance over the last year, and low-to-moderate price-to-sales ratios.

On the value front we seek stocks selling at modest price-to-book-value ratios compared to their peers and the market overall. We also give extra points to profitable dividend payers and avoid companies with high debt loads compared to their peers because they have a habit of capsizing.

Top stocks get As on both measures, making them outstanding growth and value candidates. Only a few manage this feat each year and this time around just one stock netted a double-A prize. But we think all of the All-Star Stocks are worthy of your time and consideration. These firms managed to get at least one A and one B on the value and growth tests, and this year’s All-Star team contains 19 firms.

Because we cram so much data into the Top 500 table, it is—alas—too big to fit in the magazine. That’s why we put it on our website and you can find it at moneysense.ca/topstocks. But, before you set sail for the Internet, tarry awhile because we will reveal the stocks with the brightest prospects right here.

Before rushing to buy any stock it’s important to understand the risks that stock ownership entails. While we believe our top stocks have the ingredients necessary for success, the future is far from certain and some stocks will inevitably flounder. There will also be periods—like the crash of 2008—when stocks generally do poorly. Simply put, there are no guarantees when it comes to the stock market.

That’s why you should make sure that a company’s situation hasn’t changed in some important way before investing. Read the latest press releases and regulatory filings. Scan newspaper stories and get up to speed on all of the most recent developments. As always, we endeavour to put you on a profitable course, but head out only after you’re fully prepared.

SUBSCRIBERS ONLYView The Top 500 U.S. Stocks, All-Stars & more for FREE online »

OR

Download the 2016 Top Stocks Premium Package with all the raw data for $14.95 »

Norm Rothery, CFA, PhD, is the founder of StingyInvestor.com and tweets as @NormanRothery. He may hold some of the securities mentioned in this article.

5 comments on “America’s best stocks 2016

  1. Your link to the top U.S. funds goes right to the top Canadian funds.

    Reply

  2. Why does your site not prompt me to log in to see the full list of US 500 Stocks using my subscription code? Is the problem MS Explorer or your technical people?

    Reply

    • Hi Debbie,

      If you are already logged in as a subscriber or if your browser keeps you signed in to MoneySense.ca, you may not need to continuously plug in your subscriber number to view the content. Let us know if you are not logged in as a subscriber and still have full access, as this may be a technical problem on our end, OR if you are using your subscription number but still cannot view the Top 500 stocks list.
      Thanks.

      Reply

  3. I agree with crowmoney; after several attempts I cannot get to the list. I’m a signed in paid subscriber–so where is the info?

    Reply

    • Hi there, the links within the story should point to the list now. Sorry about that! The top 500 U.S. stocks list is also accessible via the navigation links beneath the “Top 500 American Stocks” banner. Thanks for reading!

      Reply

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