<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>MoneySense &#187; david merkel</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.moneysense.ca/tag/david-merkel/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.moneysense.ca</link>
	<description>Canada&#039;s Personal Finance Website</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:34:38 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.5</generator>
		<item>
		<title>Investment risk: Nerve medicine</title>
		<link>http://www.moneysense.ca/2008/01/21/investment-risk-nerve-medicine/</link>
		<comments>http://www.moneysense.ca/2008/01/21/investment-risk-nerve-medicine/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jan 2008 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Magazine Archive]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[November 2007]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset diversification]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[david merkel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk control]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[value investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://20071128_170617_7228</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Five great ways to manage your money and sleep easy at night, no matter what the stock market is doing.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I came into the  investment business through the back door as an actuary and a risk manager. For  more than a decade, I worked for several large life insurance companies creating  investment products. My teamâ€™s dirty secret? We just wanted to clip a smallish profit  on the assets, without taking much risk ourselves. If we could do that, and  produce a reliable investment result for our clients, we were happy.</p>
<p>That was my job then;  in a different sense, it is my job now. My goal as a writer, commentator, and  independent money manager is to retain most of the profit potential from personal  investing while removing much of the risk.</p>
<p>Nobody can avoid every  up and down in the market. What you can do, however, is to ensure that you  donâ€™t get crushed when the market rolls over. My own portfolio is a case in  point. Over the last seven years, starting in September of 2000, my investment  process has yielded an annualized return of 20% a year. I had only one losing  year in that time, but it was a doozy. During four months in 2002, my portfolio  lost 32% of its value. I was shaken, but I scraped together my spare cash and  invested. Over the next 16 months, my portfolio rallied 86%, which I found  about as astounding as the 32% loss.</p>
<p>The experience taught  me that risk control works. Oddly enough, though, risk control doesnâ€™t get a  lot of attention. The most popular books and websites on investing spend nearly  all their time focusing on the prospect of big returns; they rush over the  matter of how to avoid big losses or how to deal with these losses when they  happen. The result? Many people sour on investing because they take risks they  donâ€™t intend and lose a lot of money. They conclude that the investment game is  rigged against them and they leave investing.</p>
<p>It doesnâ€™t have to be that  way. Let me suggest five simple ways you can control your worst tendencies,  reduce your risk and become a happier investor.</p>
<p><strong>1. Spread your bets around.</strong></p>
<p>The most  basic rule of risk control is to diversify your investments. It is also the  most neglected rule.</p>
<p>Most  people donâ€™t understand what diversification means. For starters, it means  building a buffer against all the stuff you would prefer not to think  aboutâ€”unemployment, sickness, a horrible bear market, etc. Before you start  investing, you need three to six months of living expenses set aside in bank  deposits, money market funds and short-term bond funds. Having this cushion  protects you from having to sell investments in an emergency, which in turn  allows you to take risks with your remaining money.</p>
<p>On top of  your emergency funds, your portfolio should include a dollop of high quality  bonds that mature in anywhere from two to 10 years. For older people, bonds  cushion the downside of the total portfolio and ensure that you canâ€™t be  devastated by a stock market downturn. For younger people, bonds provide an  additional benefitâ€”you can sell them to buy stocks or other investments if the  market plunges and you spot tempting bargains. So how much of your portfolio  should you devote to bonds? As little as 20% of your portfolio if youâ€™re in  your twenties and a risk taker; 50% or more if youâ€™re above 65 or naturally  cautious.</p>
<p>Once  youâ€™ve got your emergency funds and your bonds stowed away, itâ€™s time for  stocksâ€”and, once again, diversification should be your starting point. You  donâ€™t want to bet your entire future on a handful of stocks or on one industry  or even on a single country. The easiest way to ensure that youâ€™re widely  diversified among many different stocks is to invest in a mutual fund or exchange-traded  fund that holds scores of individual stocks, representing a multitude of  different industries.</p>
<p>If, like  me, you prefer to buy individual stocks, you have to balance your desire to be  widely diversified against how much money you have to invest andâ€”just as  importantâ€”how much time you have to spend researching companies. My minimum for  reasonable diversification is 15 stocks. When I started investing as a serious  amateur back in 1992, I started with 15 stocks in my portfolio, and I bought  $2,000 of each of them. Since then Iâ€™ve made maybe a dozen serious investing  mistakes, but because I had my money diversified among many companies, none of  my mistakes ever cost me more than 2% of my total capital.</p>
<p>These  days Iâ€™m even more diversified: I run with 35 stocks, which is close to the  maximum an individual can hope to research. Generally I devote an equal amount  of money to each of my stocksâ€”an equal weight, in investment jargonâ€”because  usually I canâ€™t tell what my best ideas are. When a position gets more than 20%  away from its target weight, I consider whether I should bring it back to equal  weight or sell the whole thing. Occasionally I deviate from equal weighting,  but only when I have a very safe stock that is grossly undervalued. I never go  above a double weight, which means that a single stock rarely accounts for even  6% of my overall portfolio.</p>
<p>The final  way I diversify my portfolio is intellectually. I try to listen to as many  viewpoints from as many different people as I can. I do this because the ideas  of all but the most careful investors are internally correlated. They reflect  some idea of what the economy is likely to do in the future, and they lean  toward companies that fit that view. Some investors love companies with high P/E  multiples and incredible growth stories. Other investorsâ€”and Iâ€™m one of  themâ€”love companies in distressed industries that are going for a song. You  should listen to both camps. Doing so insures that you learn to think about  investments from a wide number of perspectives. It makes investing more businesslike.</p>
<p><strong>2. Follow the cash.</strong></p>
<p>Most  investors pay a lot of attention to how much a company earns; few investors  realize how easily management can manipulate those earnings with fancy  accounting. To reduce risk in the stocks you buy, keep an eye on a companyâ€™s  cash flow as well as its earnings.</p>
<p>Your  first step should be to look with a questioning eye at the non-cash, or accrual  items, on the companyâ€™s financial statements. Non-cash items include entries  for such things as depreciation, inventory adjustments, or bad debt allowances.  Cash is certain, but non-cash items such as these are anything but. Earnings can  be thrown up or down by how quickly management decides to write down the value  of a new factory or by how much it estimates its inventory of rotary-dial  phones is really worth. The accounting industry tries to set guidelines for  non-cash items, but management still has a lot of leeway.</p>
<p>For  non-accountants, the easiest way to sniff out possible trouble is to compare  the earnings statement with the cash flow statement â€”specifically the top  segment of the cash flow statement, which shows â€œcash flow from operations.â€  This is the amount of cold hard cash the companyâ€™s operations are generating,  before making any payouts to lenders or shareholders, or investing in new equipment.  In most cases, if a companyâ€™s earnings are growing, its cash flow from  operations should also be going up, since higher earnings just about always  mean more cash going through the business. So what if a company says its  earnings are growing, but its cash flow isnâ€™t? You should be very, very wary.  The financial statements arenâ€™t necessarily bogus, but you have to puzzle out  how a companyâ€™s earnings can be rising without throwing off more cash.</p>
<p>Sometimes  there is no good answer to this puzzle. Remember Sunbeam, the small-appliance  maker that hired â€œChainsaw Alâ€ Dunlap to goose its business? I owned the stock  in 1996 when Dunlap came on the scene. But after two earnings reports I became suspicious.  â€œAll of these restructuring efforts are improving earnings, but theyâ€™re not  producing cash from operations,â€ I thought. â€œWhat gives?â€ I concluded something  fishy was going on, so I sold for a nice gain. Over the next six months, the  stock rose by 60%â€”then plunged 90% as it became clear that most of Sunbeamâ€™s  increase in earnings was the result of accounting shenanigans.</p>
<p><strong>3. Take emotion out of it.</strong></p>
<p>You  should look over your portfolio two to four times a year. In my own case, I  follow a very structured process. I take all of the investment ideas that I  have gathered up since my last portfolio pruning, and rate them on valuation,  momentum, and accounting quality to arrive at a composite measure of their  overall desirability. I compare these ideas to the companies that are already  in my portfolio.</p>
<p>This  sounds complicated and so it is. But exactly how you do your ranking is less  important than having a system for comparing the stocks in your existing  portfolio to the alternatives that the market is offering you. Your goal should  be to take the emotion out of investing. You donâ€™t want to fall in love with  the companies that you already own. To avoid this, I try to pinpoint what  companies in my ideas list are better than the median idea in my portfolio.</p>
<p>I also  look at the companies in my portfolio that are below the median in  desirability, and I ask why Iâ€™m keeping them. In many cases, the companies are  less desirable because theyâ€™ve gone up in price and are no longer as cheap as  they once were. In other cases, theyâ€™re less desirable for the opposite reasonâ€”  the companyâ€™s business has deteriorated and shows no signs of turning around.  Every three to four months, I usually sell two or three companies from my 35-stock  list and replace them with more promising companies from the ideas list. I  typically hold a stock for three years. Many of my ideas go against me at  first, but often turn and make money for me later.</p>
<p><strong>4. Love the unloved.</strong></p>
<p>Most  people avoid industries under stress. Who can blame them? The industry outlook  is horrible; there canâ€™t be anything good here.</p>
<p>I take a  different view. I believe that some of the safest plays consist of buying  financially strong names in weak sectors. You can often spot these companies  because theyâ€™re cheap in comparison to their earnings and to their book values.  For more on how to spot undervalued companies, visit the website of Tweedy, Browne,  the famous value-investing firm, and read their excellent paper on What Has  Worked In Investing (<a href="http://www.tweedy.com/" target="_blank">http://www.tweedy.com</a>,  then look under Research &amp; Reports). In addition to the standard measures,  I look for companies with good bond ratings, which are the best single measure  of a companyâ€™s creditworthiness. Companies with the best ratings can generate  cash well in excess of what is needed to pay all their creditors.</p>
<p>Once Iâ€™ve  bought a stock, I try to be patient, because the payoff is usually not  instantaneous. In mid-2000, when steel stocks looked horrible, I bought Nucor,  the soundest company in the industry. I sold it in early 2002 for a gain,  because I had better opportunities elsewhere. Steel companies dropped like  flies in 2002 and even Nucor slid. In early 2003, it had fallen enough for me  to buy back in. When enough steel-making capacity had been closed, steel prices  began to rise. Nucor flew, and I made a nice profitâ€”again.</p>
<p>The key  to making this contrarian strategy work is to not overdo it. Some  industriesâ€”newspapers, sayâ€”truly do have questionable futures. You have to  analyze each situation on its own merits. At present, my favorite industries  are insurance, energy, agriculture/food processing, cement, and chemicals.</p>
<p>My  value-hunting approach means that most of the stuff I buy is not popular. I  veer away from firms that are pioneering new technologies or markets. They are  difficult to value because there are so many unknowns.</p>
<p>When I  talk about the companies I own, the response is often, â€œYou invest in obscure  stuff. What do you think about Google?â€ I donâ€™t have an opinion on Google. I  canâ€™t tell you whether it will produce enough profits over the years to justify  its current price or not. So much depends on future tastes and competition. Iâ€™d  rather own cement companies; they are very difficult to make obsolete.</p>
<p>5. Smart money  is slow money.</p>
<p>If a  stockbroker or financial planner tells you that youâ€™ll miss a huge opportunity  if you donâ€™t buy right now, ignore them. A smart investor moves at his or her  own pace.</p>
<p>To make  sure that you donâ€™t get pressured into buying something, avoid salespeople. Stockbrokers,  financial planners, mutual fund salespeople and even the experts on the  television all have financial incentives that can pull them in directions  opposite to whatâ€™s in your best interest. Before buying any stock or any  financial product, you should do a bit of background reading so that you understand  what youâ€™re buying and how much rival products cost. In many casesâ€”insurance is  a good exampleâ€”youâ€™ll find that the simplest product is your best buy.  Complexity in insurance, and many other investments, is usually a cover for  increased fees.</p>
<p>Especially  when it comes to buying stocks, patience is your best friend. If an idea seems  like a sure thing, sit on it for a month. If the idea is still a good one, you  will usually still have time to act on it. If the idea is a bad one, the extra  time will help you do further research and may expose the problems.</p>
<p>One of  the best ways to make money is to avoid losing it. When I approach new ideas, I  ask how likely it is that I will lose money, and how much I could lose if I am  wrong. I lose about 20% of the timeâ€”and thatâ€™s fine. I know I canâ€™t avoid all  setbacks, but if I take my time and do my research, I can limit my losses and  make money on the rest of my ideas.</p>
<p><strong>David  Merkel, </strong><em>CFA, FSA, is the founder of the Aleph  blog (<a href="http://alephblog.com/" target="_blank">http://alephblog.com</a>), a website  devoted to investment and risk control.</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.moneysense.ca/2008/01/21/investment-risk-nerve-medicine/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>71</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
<!-- WP Super Cache is installed but broken. The path to wp-cache-phase1.php in wp-content/advanced-cache.php must be fixed! -->
