Advertisement
Geopolitics, rising oil prices and ETF inflows are shaping Bitcoin’s outlook. Is now the right time for Canadian investors to buy BTC?
Welcome to the Canadian Crypto Observer. Financial journalist and author Aditya Nain offers perspective on market-moving headlines to help Canadian investors navigate the cryptocurrency market.
Right now, geopolitics is front of mind for investors and almost nothing else matters to the markets. Whether you invest in the stock market, real estate, bonds, or cryptocurrencies, you’re probably checking the global news section of the newspaper first thing each morning—hoping against hope for some good news, especially with regard to the US-Israel war with Iran.
Unfortunately, Since the time of writing the previous edition of this column, the war has only gotten worse. The US and Israel continue their onslaught on targets in Iran, while Iran continues to target several gulf countries with US military bases, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and others. As of now, apart from a few (sometimes contradictory) tweets from President Trump, there are few signs that this war will abate as soon as we’d hoped.
We’ve ranked the best crypto exchanges in Canada.
What does a war being fought thousands of kilometers away have to do with BTC and crypto investors in Canada, you may ask. The answer, unfortunately, is everything.
The war has led to higher crude oil prices. This could likely cause higher inflation, leading to higher interest rates. In fact, the Bank of Canada (BoC), in its most recent interest rate announcement on March 18, held rates stable and struck a cautious tone in light of the inflationary potential of the Iran war. The end result? A damaging effect on growth assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
As the chart below shows, the price of crude oil has risen from about $67 to over $100 (all figures in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified) since the current Iran war began on February 28, 2026.
Source: Google Finance on Mar. 29, 2026
Crude has jumped about 50% in just 30 days. That’s bad enough, but if things in the Middle East don’t calm down soon, oil could possibly climb to $150 or higher. It’s no wonder investors are cautious and, frankly, a little scared.
In the gloom and doom of the current market, here is an encouraging data point for BTC investors: Since the Iran war began one month ago, BTC has been more or less flat (up 2.56% as I write this on the morning of March 31, 2026). That’s way better than the performance of the S&P 500 (down 7.82%), the S&P/TSX 60 (down 6.25%), and gold (down 15.39%).
Source: Google Finance on Mar. 31, 2026
Does this mean that BTC will continue to outperform other asset classes? Not necessarily. Markets are cyclical, and BTC could have performed better in the past month simply because it’s been a laggard since October 2025. In other words, BTC was probably oversold before the war even began.
While the geopolitical news is bleak, there’s a silver lining for BTC investors: we’re seeing some significant buying in US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As the chart below shows, BTC ETFs experienced net outflows since October 2025, as indicated by the red bars at the bottom right of the graph; however, February and March 2026 saw significant green bars, indicating renewed institutional interest in BTC. It remains to be seen whether this trend will continue.
Source: Glassnode on Mar. 29, 2026.
Another way to get a glimpse of the same story is through the net flows of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), the largest BTC spot ETF in the world. Each bar below represents one week net flows of IBIT over the past year.
Source: Coinmarketcap as on Mar. 31, 2026.
As the chart above shows, the picture has been pretty bleak since about October 2025, with most weeks showing a net outflow of money from the ETF. In other words, investors were pulling more money out of IBIT than they were investing in it. However, in what is a welcome relief from this negative trend, at the far right of the chart, we can see four consecutive positive weeks in February and March of this year. This could mean that institutional investors find BTC attractive at $60,000 to $70,000.
Cryptocurrencies including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, and others are speculative and highly volatile assets subject to significant price movements. Even stablecoins, which are seemingly “safe,” may be risky if not adequately backed by real-world assets.
Investing in bitcoin and other crypto coins carries significant market, technological, and regulatory risks. Invest in crypto only if it aligns with your broader investment goals, time horizon, and risk profile, and always stay vigilant about crypto scams.
Share this article Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linkedin Share on Reddit Share on Email
Wealthsimple's direct indexing brings a tax-saving investing strategy to a wider group of investors, but the number likely to...
It’s almost impossible to do, but the mindset around spending all your savings can help you make the best of the...
In the likelihood of a protracted conflict, these experts think people in or close to retirement need to review...
Filing your 2025 taxes in 2026? Here are the key changes, cancelled credits, and CRA updates Canadians need...
Look under the hood before buying some popular Canadian sector ETFs. There may be alternatives that better represent the...
Global conflicts affect Canadians’ finances in real time. Learn how rising costs, volatility, and uncertainty can impact your budget...
If you leave Canada and own a rental property, or you are a non-resident and you buy a rental...
Gen Z faces an “experience gap” as AI and employer expectations rise. Co-ops, apprenticeships, and hands-on learning are now...
Rental property investors need to report their annual income and expenses on their tax return. You must also track...
The Canada Caregiver Amount can help families supporting loved ones with infirmities. Learn who qualifies and how much you...